In the event of a recession (which Deloitte rates at a 35% probability), the economy would contract, and unemployment would rise. And there is a significant chance that a recession would make things much worse. 7 A relatively healthy labor market will, however, continue to boost sales. 6 In our baseline scenario (55% probability), we forecast GDP growth to slow to 0.9% in 2023 from an estimated 2% in 2022 and 5.9% in 2021. A slowing economy will keep retail sales growth in check.Three key economic trends will likely influence retail sales: 5 For an even deeper dive, download the full report.Ī note from Deloitte US Economists Danny Bachman and Akrur Barua To learn more about the emerging retail industry trends, explore them below. The results provide a unique outlook on how today's market, future expectations, and changing consumer needs inform strategies for the year ahead-and beyond. We wanted to better understand what traits separate leaders from the rest of the pack and to analyze planned strategies and investments for 2023. To check the pulse of retail executives, we asked 50 leaders about their expectations regarding challenges and opportunities in the upcoming year. They learned that rapidly evolving consumer preferences require more effective analytics and tools to build loyalty.

Massive demand fluctuations during the pandemic forced retailers to rethink archaic systems in favor of more pliable operations.

They’re also predicting hard times for consumers, with nearly all anticipating diminished consumption in 2023, resulting from rising financial concerns.īut the retail outlook is not all gloom and doom retailers have learned much about resiliency in the past few years.

1 Almost all retail executives expect inflation to pressure their profit margins. As we head into the new year, only one-third of retail executives are very confident about maintaining or improving profit margins in what are expected to be turbulent times. Retailers today are feeling the hangover of such volatility occurring in the most condensed time frame of any recent business cycle. Resiliency in bulk quantity: a retail industry overviewĬhange can be good, but constant change can be daunting.

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